This is a list of ways to tell the economy is moving downward, categorized by the simple reasons why it’s connected.
- While it’s not as frequent as a growing economy, it becomes more difficult to find new jobs in almost anything, and everyone tends to obsess more about saving money.
- However, many roles are completely unaffected once you’re in a specialization, and some roles grow in a recession (e.g., vehicle repossessors).
- Anecdotally, these don’t prove a weak economy, but many of them together is a good sign that your career misfortune may be shared by everyone else as well.
- Also, this can often involve region-specific economic indicators (e.g., a hurting county may be seeing everyone taking their business to another county).
Consumers want to spend less:
- More people bring homemade lunches to work.
- It’s far more affordable than buying it at work or eating out.
- Fast food restaurants during a lunch or dinner rush are slow.
- People are more motivated to cut their costs.
- Large businesses have plenty of parking.
- Nobody wants to buy from them.
People need more money:
- Project cars are more frequently listed on classified ads.
- More people need the cash, and more people have the time to fix a car from unemployment.
- Used guitars are extremely common.
- More people want immediate cash over their guitars.
- More autos are sold directly by the owner.
- They imagine they may turn more of a profit if they sell it themselves.
- Specific collections (card, stamp, comic books) are more often on sale.
- They also typically sell for much less than a few years prior.
- More loans are rejected.
- People either have bad credit scores from other debts, or banks are more nervous to issue loans.
- More payments are declined.
- People frequently have trouble budgeting when their income drops.
More people need work:
- There are more students in schools.
- Their only short-term solution for work is to acquire student debt to gain skills.
- Military ads become more severe.
- Their recruitment numbers are much easier to hit, but they have to sift through more quality issues (from candidates who may be lazy or uncommitted).
There is less work:
- Plumbers show up on time.
- They don’t have much business.
- There are fewer workplace injuries.
- There isn’t enough work to motivate people to work less safely.
- There is much more availability for scheduling medical and veterinary appointments.
- People aren’t going as frequently to routine checkups.
- Companies advertise to prior customers from a long time ago.
- They’re trying to find leads anywhere they can.
Consumers are more picky, so businesses try to improve their offerings:
- Many houses stay for sale for weeks or months.
- Consumers become more picky, and there are fewer of them.
- Lottery jackpots run up to higher numbers more often and more quickly.
- Since the lottery is somewhat regulated (i.e., not entirely random), higher winnings are necessary to give incentive to keep people spending.
While they try, companies can’t adapt to consumer expectations while turning a profit:
- Italian sandwich shops in ideal locations are struggling or closing down.
- People will avoid eating out or will eat somewhere more affordably.
- Botox becomes less common.
- Cosmetic purchases are frequently put on hold when it’s a higher ratio of income.
- Adult entertainment venues are barely populated.
- Nobody spends on strip clubs or bars when they can’t afford it.
Companies are willing to take cost-cutting risks:
- More work is sent overseas.
- Offshoring work is a risk to corporate culture, but worth the cost if things become unpleasant.
- Low-cost gambling (e.g., $5 blackjack, more nickel slot machines)
- Nobody wants to pay for high-stakes bets.
- Large companies make company-wide spending cuts.
- They often do it to make the next quarterly report look acceptable.
- Specific departments are cut or reduced: research and development, marketing, then HR.
- Most companies have to cut down costs to avoid losing too much money.
- The waitresses and prostitutes are more attractive.
- Companies will hire attractive, low-skill people (e.g., as receptionists), but they will be the first in the company who are laid off.
People have more time, but less money:
- Media services (e.g., streaming TV shows) have more viewership, but a lower proportion of paid subscribers.
- Unemployed people are waiting to get a job, so they have time, but they don’t have any expendable income.